19th Annual Portfolio Management Conferene – Investment Management in times of change

1st day of the conference: 7th June 2016

8:00 a.m. Registration
8:45 a.m. Opening remarks

Module 1: Prospects for the global economy, Europe and the capital markets

9:00 a.m. The development of the world economy: Descent of the emerging markets and comeback of the euro zone?

  • The emerging markets' economy is slowing down while the US and Europe see increasing growth.
  • China's economy is about to undergo a profound change, which means a major risk for the global economy.
  • In the euro zone as a whole, recovery is progressing more slowly than in the US or other industrial countries.
  • The institutional architecture in the euro zone is not immune to crises.
  • The comeback of the euro zone requires further adjustments and reforms.

Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest, ZEW, Mannheim & ifo-institute, Munich, Germany

10:00 a.m. Two strategists, two opinions: Macroeconomic climate and current investment opportunities

  • Whatever is happening to inflation? Are we in Europe at risk from conditions like those in Japan?
  • Money policies on both sides of the Atlantic – consequences for trends in interest rates
  • How are credit spreads for investment grade, high yield and EMD expected to develop?
  • A strong dollar, a weak euro – foreign exchange at the forefront for investors
  • The oil price in free fall – do raw materials still make sense as an investment?
  • Stock markets in a world of declining growth – developed markets as opposed to emerging markets
  • Which markets will offer the best opportunity-risk ratio in the years to come?

Joachim Fels, PIMCO, Newport Beach, USA
Dr. Jörg Krämer, Commerzbank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

11:00 a.m. Coffee break

Module 2: Topical key issues for institutional capital investment

11:30 a.m. Quo vadis, credit market? Impacts and opportunities of the current geopolitical situation

  • What is awaiting us in the credit market? The effects of the uncertain geopolitical situation
  • What are the consequences of the industrial countries' debt level and its development for investors?
  • Where do the unnoticed risks lie for growth, interest rates and inflation?
  • How can investors invest reasonably in the current environment?
  • Is inflation-protected investment a sensible positioning for institutional investors?

Alex Veroude, Insight Investment, New York, USA

12:30 p.m. Lunch

2:00 p.m Private debt: Are lending and illiquidity premiums an alternative to traditional fixed income?

  • What is the banks' position (bank loan trends in Europe)?
  • Does the loan market offer long-term opportunities for real money investors?
  • Illiquidity premium as a strategy for yield enhancement?
  • Infrastructure debt: privileged by European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) – not without good reason?
  • Real estate debt: an alternative to covered bonds or even to real estate?
  • Small and medium-sized business financing: What is the opportunity of investing as a co-investor?

Sven Simonis, Deutsche Asset Management, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

2:45 p.m.Looking for alpha: Insights from a systematic analysis of real management data

  • Is historic investment performance an indicator for the future?
  • How can the quality of investment performance be assessed?
  • Do regional experts have an advantage in comparison with global managers?
  • What parameters are important for alpha?
  • It is net performance that counts: What are the economic drivers for management fees?

Dr. Jochen Kleeberg, alpha portfolio advisors, Bad Soden am Taunus, Germany

3:30 p.m. Coffee break

Module 3: Changes in political power structures and their consequences for the world system

4:00 p.m. Geopolitical risks in times of changing political power conditions

Thomas E. Donilon is planning his lecture on the subject of the geopolitical situation in June 2016. Relevance and the utmost in topicality are thus assured.

Thomas E. Donilon, 23rd National Security Advisor (2010-2013), USA

5:00 p.m. Message, money, mobilization: On the finishing straight to the White House

  • The state of the race: Who is leading the race for the White House four months before the election date?
  • Inside the war room: How does the inside of a multi-billion election campaign look like and how are decisions being made?
  • Integrated & data-driven campaigning: What role do big data and micro-targeting play in the digital election campaign and what can we learn from it?
  • Status quo or change: What are the political consequences for which we should be preparing ourselves?

Julius van de Laar, Van de Laar Campaigning, Berlin, Germany

6:00 p.m. Cocktail reception

7:00 p.m. Dinner with Wolfgang Moser

2nd day of conference: 8th June 2016

8:00 a.m. Registration
8:55 a.m. openeing remarks

Module 4: Fresh approaches to investing

9:00 a.m. Learning by doing: What is the value of fund managers' experience?

  • Practical challenges: How can effects of learning be measured?
  • How important are effects of learning for fund managers? Very important!
  • How much alpha is generated by experience?
  • Are all industries equal: Where can fund managers best gather experience?
  • Optimum career development, bearing in mind the effects of learning

Prof. Oliver G. Spalt, Professor of Behavioral Finance, Tilburg University, The Netherlands

9:45 a.m. Putting style-based investing into perspective

  • It's not new and it's not beta, but it's very powerful
  • New empirical insights for long investment horizons
  • How style investing can strengthen portfolio performance over the long term
  • What to look out for in getting style exposure

Prof. Tobias J. Moskowitz, Ph.D., Fama Family Professor of Finance, University of Chicago, USA

10:45 a.m. coffee break

11:15 a.m. Panel discussion: What chances and risks do the stock markets hold?

  • What regions and industries do currently appear particularly attractive?
  • How do macro factors like the US dollar, oil price and interest rates affect future yield potential?
  • What chances and risks do the emerging markets hold today?
  • What are the major differences and the similarities of fundamental and quant investors?
  • Man vs. machine: What is the royal road?
  • What chances do long/short equity strategies offer in the current market environment?
  • What investing styles – small caps, value, momentum, quality – are currently offering the best opportunities?
  • What will be the major risks for stock markets over the next 5 years?

Michael Fraikin, Invesco Quantitative Strategies, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Dr. Hendrik Leber, ACATIS Investment, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Harald Sporleder, Allianz Global Investors, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

12:15 p.m. Lunch

Current challenges for institutional investors

1:45 p.m. Too different for comfort

  • Why are zero rates a disaster, killing economic growth and leading to a higher GINI coefficient?
  • Why have the markets become irrational since 1980, going from one fade to the other?
  • Why is indexation a form of socialism leading to booms, busts, misallocations of capital and falling productivity?
  • Why the Euro is killing Europe?

Charles Gave, Gavekal, Hongkong

2:45 p.m. The Norwegian state fund 1996-2016: 20 years experience as a long-term investor

  • The background of the fund mechanism
  • From 0 to 750 billion euro of fixed assets
  • The development of strategic asset allocation
  • Experiences made with rebalancing
  • The "Norway Model" in comparison with the "Canada Model"

Björn G. From, Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Oslo, Norway

3:30 Panel discussion: Ideas for better positioning, caught between low interest rates, regulatory requirements and yield targets

  • What are currently the three biggest risks for investment?
  • How do you respond to continuing low interest rates?
  • To what extent does the regulatory framework restrict your management scope?
  • What adjustments would you want to be made by the legislator?
  • Which asset classes you feel might in the current environment be of interest to you?
  • Are alternative investments actually a viable alternative?

Anton Buchhart, Barmenia Versicherungen, Wuppertal, Germany
Hans Rübel, Robert Bosch, Stuttgart, Germany
Ralf Wohltmann, Versorgungswerk der Zahneärztekammer, Berlin, Germany

4:30 p.m. End of the conference